∅ Empty Set Football
Week 1 · 2026 regular season

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Thu, Sep 10, 5:35 PM PT

Final San Francisco 49ers won
How the forecasts did
ESF
(pre-game win probability)
SF 46%
54% LA

Wrong: SF won

No betting line was collected for this game; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

After the game

CAP win pct, before and after

Each team's CAP win pct before this game and after it. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

SF · won
0.96
0.89 before → 0.96 after (+0.06).
LA · lost
0.68
0.78 before → 0.68 after (−0.10).
This game

How each offense played

Box score and CAP yards per attempt for each offense. Higher is better for an offense; a CAP value above zero means the offense beat what the situation and this defense would predict.

OffensePlaysBox score
yds/att
CAP
yds/att
CAP
−2 to +2
SFPass346.0+0.01
SFRush305.8+0.89
LAPass286.0−1.48
LARush294.2−0.07

Sacks (raw counts):SF sacked 0 times · LA sacked 0 times. Sacks are counted, not CAP-modeled.

Box score yards per attempt count yards as an official box score does: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded. CAP yards per attempt measure each play against what the down, distance, field position and this specific defense would predict; above zero means the offense beat that expectation.

Before the game

Unit matchups · entering week 1

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: SF offense vs LA defense
+1.063rd
box score —
Edge
SF
−0.596th
box score —
Rush: SF offense vs LA defense
+0.0517th
box score —
Even
+0.0215th
box score —
Pass: LA offense vs SF defense
+1.232nd
box score —
Edge
LA
+0.1218th
box score —
Rush: LA offense vs SF defense
+0.902nd
box score —
Edge
LA
+0.0818th
box score —

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 1.

Week 1

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.