∅ Empty Set Football
Week 8 · 2026 regular season

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Mon, Nov 2, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CHI 41%
59% SEA

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 8

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CHI offense vs SEA defense
+0.1212th
box score 7.1 · 18th
Edge
SEA
−1.571st
box score 5.2 allowed · 1st
Rush: CHI offense vs SEA defense
+0.506th
box score 4.5 · 11th
Edge
SEA
−0.901st
box score 3.5 allowed · 4th
Pass: SEA offense vs CHI defense
+0.539th
box score 7.4 · 13th
Edge
SEA
+0.9330th
box score 8.4 allowed · 31st
Rush: SEA offense vs CHI defense
−0.0614th
box score 3.9 · 18th
Edge
SEA
+0.4226th
box score 4.5 allowed · 24th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 8.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CHI pass offense vs SEA pass defense
CHI pass offense SEA pass defense (allowed)
−1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI −0.09 SEA −1.48 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI −0.09 SEA −1.48
SEA pass offense vs CHI pass defense
SEA pass offense CHI pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SEA +0.76 CHI +1.10 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SEA +0.76 CHI +1.10
CHI rush offense vs SEA rush defense
CHI rush offense SEA rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI +0.65 SEA −0.85 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI +0.65 SEA −0.85
SEA rush offense vs CHI rush defense
SEA rush offense CHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SEA −0.02 CHI +0.44 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SEA −0.02 CHI +0.44
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI 0.69 SEA 0.89 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI 0.69 SEA 0.89
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CHI Chicago Bears

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CAR Won 56%
2 vs MIN Lost 57%
3 vs PHI Won 47%
4 vs NYJ Won 81%
5 @ GB Lost 52%
6 @ ATL Won 54%

SEA Seattle Seahawks

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NE Won 67%
2 @ ARI Won 81%
3 @ WAS Lost 81%
4 vs LAC Won 74%
5 vs SF Lost 56%
6 @ DEN Lost 40%
Week 8

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.