∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Dec 27, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CIN 57%
43% IND

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CIN offense vs IND defense
+0.0115th
box score 7.2 · 15th
Edge
CIN
+0.6126th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: CIN offense vs IND defense
−0.0817th
box score 3.6 · 27th
Even
0.0018th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th
Pass: IND offense vs CIN defense
−0.7827th
box score 5.9 · 27th
Even
+0.5525th
box score 7.3 allowed · 20th
Rush: IND offense vs CIN defense
+0.448th
box score 4.0 · 17th
Edge
IND
+0.6531st
box score 5.0 allowed · 29th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CIN pass offense vs IND pass defense
CIN pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN +0.01 IND +0.73 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN +0.01 IND +0.73
IND pass offense vs CIN pass defense
IND pass offense CIN pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 CIN +0.55 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 CIN +0.55
CIN rush offense vs IND rush defense
CIN rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN −0.08 IND +0.05 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN −0.08 IND +0.05
IND rush offense vs CIN rush defense
IND rush offense CIN rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 CIN +0.65 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 CIN +0.65
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN 0.51 IND 0.29 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN 0.51 IND 0.29
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs TB Won 63%
2 @ HOU Won 30%
3 @ PIT Lost 44%
4 vs JAX Lost 43%
5 @ MIA Won 54%

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.