∅ Empty Set Football
Week 2 · 2026 regular season

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Sep 20, 1:05 PM PT

Final Las Vegas Raiders won
How the forecasts did
ESF
(pre-game win probability)
LV 21%
79% LAC

Wrong: LV won

No betting line was collected for this game; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

After the game

CAP win pct, before and after

Each team's CAP win pct before this game and after it. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

LV · won
0.08
−0.07 before → 0.08 after (+0.15).
LAC · lost
0.53
0.66 before → 0.53 after (−0.13).
This game

How each offense played

Box score and CAP yards per attempt for each offense. Higher is better for an offense; a CAP value above zero means the offense beat what the situation and this defense would predict.

OffensePlaysBox score
yds/att
CAP
yds/att
CAP
−2 to +2
LVPass298.7+1.14
LVRush292.0−1.63
LACPass277.1−1.16
LACRush324.0−0.67

Sacks (raw counts):LV sacked 2 times · LAC sacked 3 times. Sacks are counted, not CAP-modeled.

Box score yards per attempt count yards as an official box score does: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded. CAP yards per attempt measure each play against what the down, distance, field position and this specific defense would predict; above zero means the offense beat that expectation.

Before the game

Unit matchups · entering week 2

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LV offense vs LAC defense
−0.7929th
box score 5.3 · 27th
Edge
LAC
−0.1515th
box score 7.5 allowed · 18th
Rush: LV offense vs LAC defense
−0.8431st
box score 3.5 · 28th
Edge
LAC
−0.0312th
box score 3.4 allowed · 4th
Pass: LAC offense vs LV defense
+0.1012th
box score 7.7 · 13th
Edge
LAC
+0.4025th
box score 8.1 allowed · 23rd
Rush: LAC offense vs LV defense
−0.4028th
box score 3.9 · 24th
Edge
LV
+0.2122nd
box score 4.1 allowed · 18th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 2.

Week 2

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.