New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Wrong: NE won
Wrong: NE won
Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 4, 9:32 AM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines
CAP win pct, before and after
Each team's CAP win pct before this game and after it. League average is 0.50; higher is better.
How each offense played
Box score and CAP yards per attempt for each offense. Higher is better for an offense; a CAP value above zero means the offense beat what the situation and this defense would predict.
| Offense | Plays | Box score yds/att | CAP yds/att | CAP −2 to +2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEPass | 37 | 7.3 | +0.33 | |
| NERush | 35 | 4.1 | −1.61 | |
| BUFPass | 33 | 7.7 | +1.52 | |
| BUFRush | 20 | 4.5 | +0.34 |
Sacks (raw counts):NE sacked 1 time · BUF sacked 1 time. Sacks are counted, not CAP-modeled.
Box score yards per attempt count yards as an official box score does: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded. CAP yards per attempt measure each play against what the down, distance, field position and this specific defense would predict; above zero means the offense beat that expectation.
Before the game
Where each side has the edge
Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.
NE
NE
BUF
BUF
CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 4.
Other games this week
Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.
- PIT @ CLE41%41%
- IND @ WAS51%33%
- ARI @ NYG60%44%
- DAL @ HOU65%58%
- GB @ TB37%42%
- JAX @ CIN43%56%
- LA @ PHI65%37%
- NYJ @ CHI81%63%
- TEN @ BAL82%85%
- MIA @ MIN78%82%
- DEN @ SF60%60%
- KC @ LV39%33%
- LAC @ SEA74%74%
- DET @ CAR45%34%
- ATL @ NO53%51%
Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.
Betting linesHow to read this page
CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.
CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.
Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.
ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.
Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.