2026 season
The Slate · Week 4
Betting linesEvery game is final. Lines are the closing lines this week was graded against.
ESF picked 9 of 16 winners · Market picked 9 of 16.
ESF model (pre-game CAP win pct) Market (median of US books, vig removed)
| Game away @ home | Kickoff Pacific | Gap, pts ESF − market | Spread home | Moneyline away / home | ESF pick win prob | Market pick win prob | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ CLE Final · CLE won | Thu 5:15 PM | ±0 | +3 | −160 / +130 | PIT 59% | PIT 59% | CLE won | |
| IND @ WAS Final · IND won | Sun 6:30 AM | +17 | +5 | −230 / +190 | WAS 51% | IND 67% | IND won | |
| ARI @ NYG Final · NYG won | Sun 10:00 AM | +16 | +2.5 | −139 / +119 | NYG 60% | ARI 56% | NYG won | |
| DAL @ HOU Final · DAL won | Sun 10:00 AM | +7 | −3 | +128 / −148 | HOU 65% | HOU 58% | DAL won | |
| GB @ TB Final · GB won | Sun 10:00 AM | −5 | +3 | −150 / +130 | GB 63% | GB 58% | GB won | |
| JAX @ CIN Final · JAX won | Sun 10:00 AM | −14 | −2.5 | +120 / −140 | JAX 57% | CIN 56% | JAX won | |
| LA @ PHI Final · LA won | Sun 10:00 AM | +27 | +3.5 | −183 / +160 | PHI 65% | LA 63% | LA won | |
| NE @ BUF Final · NE won | Sun 10:00 AM | −4 | −7 | +270 / −350 | BUF 70% | BUF 74% | NE won | |
| NYJ @ CHI Final · CHI won | Sun 10:00 AM | +18 | −3.5 | +159 / −189 | CHI 81% | CHI 63% | CHI won | |
| TEN @ BAL Final · BAL won | Sun 10:00 AM | −3 | −11.5 | +538 / −760 | BAL 82% | BAL 85% | BAL won | |
| MIA @ MIN Final · MIN won | Sun 1:05 PM | −3 | −10 | +410 / −560 | MIN 78% | MIN 82% | MIN won | |
| DEN @ SF Final · SF won | Sun 1:25 PM | ±0 | −3 | +140 / −165 | SF 60% | SF 60% | SF won | |
| KC @ LV Final · KC won | Sun 1:25 PM | +6 | +4.5 | −225 / +190 | KC 61% | KC 67% | KC won | |
| LAC @ SEA Final · SEA won | Sun 1:25 PM | ±0 | −7 | +265 / −360 | SEA 74% | SEA 74% | SEA won | |
| DET @ CAR Final · CAR won | Sun 5:20 PM | +11 | +4 | −220 / +185 | DET 55% | DET 66% | CAR won | |
| ATL @ NO Final · ATL won | Mon 5:15 PM | +2 | −1 | −105 / −115 | NO 53% | NO 51% | ATL won |
Picks: blue means the pick was right, red and struck through means wrong. Shaded rows: ESF and the market differ by 10 points or more. Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median across US books; a final game uses the last pull before its kickoff. Spread: negative means the home team is favored. Lines as of Oct 5, 4:47 PM PT. Home win probability, the gap in points, spread and moneyline are on each game's page.
Betting lines