2026 season
The Slate · Week 5
Betting linesEvery game is final. Lines are the closing lines this week was graded against.
ESF picked 9 of 14 winners · Market picked 9 of 14.
ESF model (pre-game CAP win pct) Market (median of US books, vig removed)
| Game away @ home | Kickoff Pacific | Gap, pts ESF − market | Spread home | Moneyline away / home | ESF pick win prob | Market pick win prob | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DAL Final · TB won | Thu 5:15 PM | −9 | −9.5 | +400 / −520 | DAL 72% | DAL 81% | TB won | |
| PHI @ JAX Final · JAX won | Sun 6:30 AM | −11 | −8 | +315 / −400 | JAX 66% | JAX 77% | JAX won | |
| CHI @ GB Final · GB won | Sun 10:00 AM | ±0 | +1 | −120 / +100 | CHI 52% | CHI 52% | GB won | |
| CIN @ MIA Final · CIN won | Sun 10:00 AM | +21 | +7 | −375 / +290 | CIN 54% | CIN 75% | CIN won | |
| CLE @ NYJ Final · NYJ won | Sun 10:00 AM | −20 | −2.5 | +125 / −145 | CLE 63% | NYJ 57% | NYJ won | |
| HOU @ TEN Final · HOU won | Sun 10:00 AM | +3 | +6.5 | −325 / +260 | HOU 70% | HOU 73% | HOU won | |
| IND @ PIT Final · PIT won | Sun 10:00 AM | +4 | −3 | +135 / −159 | PIT 63% | PIT 59% | PIT won | |
| LV @ NE Final · NE won | Sun 10:00 AM | +16 | −3.5 | +155 / −180 | NE 78% | NE 62% | NE won | |
| MIN @ NO Final · MIN won | Sun 10:00 AM | −13 | +2.5 | −137 / +117 | MIN 69% | MIN 56% | MIN won | |
| NYG @ WAS Final · Tie | Sun 10:00 AM | −13 | −3.5 | +154 / −184 | NYG 51% | WAS 62% | Tie | |
| DEN @ LAC Final · DEN won | Sun 1:05 PM | +2 | +3.5 | −191 / +166 | DEN 61% | DEN 63% | DEN won | |
| DET @ ARI Final · DET won | Sun 1:25 PM | +2 | +5.5 | −245 / +205 | DET 66% | DET 69% | DET won | |
| SF @ SEA Final · SF won | Sun 1:25 PM | −4 | −3 | +143 / −163 | SEA 56% | SEA 60% | SF won | |
| BAL @ ATL Final · BAL won | Sun 5:20 PM | −13 | −3 | +150 / −175 | BAL 52% | ATL 61% | BAL won | |
| BUF @ LA Final · BUF won | Mon 5:15 PM | −10 | −3.5 | +153 / −175 | LA 51% | LA 62% | BUF won |
Picks: blue means the pick was right, red and struck through means wrong. Shaded rows: ESF and the market differ by 10 points or more. Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median across US books; a final game uses the last pull before its kickoff. Spread: negative means the home team is favored. Lines as of Oct 11, 12:47 PM PT. Home win probability, the gap in points, spread and moneyline are on each game's page.
Betting linesByes: CAR, KC.