∅ Empty Set Football
Week 11 · 2026 regular season

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Nov 22, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
TEN 33%
67% DAL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 11

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: TEN offense vs DAL defense
−1.2732nd
box score 5.6 · 31st
Even
+1.4632nd
box score 8.3 allowed · 30th
Rush: TEN offense vs DAL defense
−0.1921st
box score 3.8 · 21st
Edge
TEN
+0.6130th
box score 5.1 allowed · 31st
Pass: DAL offense vs TEN defense
+0.3710th
box score 7.2 · 16th
Edge
DAL
+1.0231st
box score 7.5 allowed · 22nd
Rush: DAL offense vs TEN defense
+0.1112th
box score 3.8 · 20th
Edge
DAL
−0.0715th
box score 3.8 allowed · 11th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 11.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

TEN pass offense vs DAL pass defense
TEN pass offense DAL pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −1.16 DAL +1.46 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −1.16 DAL +1.46
DAL pass offense vs TEN pass defense
DAL pass offense TEN pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 TEN +1.15 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 TEN +1.15
TEN rush offense vs DAL rush defense
TEN rush offense DAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.14 DAL +0.61 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.14 DAL +0.61
DAL rush offense vs TEN rush defense
DAL rush offense TEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 TEN −0.13 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 TEN −0.13
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.21 DAL 0.36 −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.21 DAL 0.36
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

TEN Tennessee Titans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NYJ Lost 54%
2 vs PHI Lost 20%
3 @ NYG Lost 41%
4 @ BAL Lost 18%
5 vs HOU Lost 30%
6 @ IND Won 28%

DAL Dallas Cowboys

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ NYG Lost 65%
2 vs WAS Won 66%
3 vs BAL Lost 50%
4 @ HOU Won 35%
5 vs TB Lost 72%
6 @ GB Lost 32%
Week 11

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.