∅ Empty Set Football
Week 13 · 2026 regular season

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Dec 6, 5:20 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
HOU 41%
59% PIT

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 13

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: HOU offense vs PIT defense
+0.0614th
box score 7.8 · 7th
Even
−0.1516th
box score 6.6 allowed · 13th
Rush: HOU offense vs PIT defense
−0.5729th
box score 3.6 · 29th
Edge
PIT
−0.436th
box score 4.0 allowed · 17th
Pass: PIT offense vs HOU defense
−0.6123rd
box score 6.3 · 23rd
Edge
HOU
−0.557th
box score 7.3 allowed · 19th
Rush: PIT offense vs HOU defense
+0.379th
box score 4.6 · 9th
Edge
HOU
−0.782nd
box score 3.4 allowed · 3rd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 13.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

HOU pass offense vs PIT pass defense
HOU pass offense PIT pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.22 PIT +0.17 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.22 PIT +0.17
PIT pass offense vs HOU pass defense
PIT pass offense HOU pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT −0.48 HOU −0.55 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT −0.48 HOU −0.55
HOU rush offense vs PIT rush defense
HOU rush offense PIT rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.75 PIT −0.35 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.75 PIT −0.35
PIT rush offense vs HOU rush defense
PIT rush offense HOU rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT +0.43 HOU −0.91 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT +0.43 HOU −0.91
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU 0.55 PIT 0.64 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU 0.55 PIT 0.64
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

HOU Houston Texans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BUF Lost 62%
2 vs CIN Lost 70%
3 @ IND Lost 66%
4 vs DAL Lost 65%
5 @ TEN Won 70%
6 @ JAX Won 27%

PIT Pittsburgh Steelers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ATL Won 62%
2 @ NE Lost 40%
3 vs CIN Won 56%
4 @ CLE Lost 59%
5 vs IND Won 63%
6 @ TB Won 64%
Week 13

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.