∅ Empty Set Football
Week 13 · 2026 regular season

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Dec 6, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
LAC 53%
47% TB

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 13

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LAC offense vs TB defense
−0.2018th
box score 6.3 · 24th
Even
+0.0819th
box score 6.6 allowed · 14th
Rush: LAC offense vs TB defense
−0.3325th
box score 4.2 · 14th
Edge
TB
−0.1013th
box score 3.4 allowed · 2nd
Pass: TB offense vs LAC defense
−1.0029th
box score 5.8 · 28th
Edge
LAC
+0.0418th
box score 7.6 allowed · 24th
Rush: TB offense vs LAC defense
−0.0918th
box score 4.8 · 6th
Edge
TB
+0.1321st
box score 4.0 allowed · 16th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 13.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

LAC pass offense vs TB pass defense
LAC pass offense TB pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LAC −0.07 TB +0.22 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LAC −0.07 TB +0.22
TB pass offense vs LAC pass defense
TB pass offense LAC pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.64 LAC −0.18 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.64 LAC −0.18
LAC rush offense vs TB rush defense
LAC rush offense TB rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LAC −0.27 TB −0.01 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LAC −0.27 TB −0.01
TB rush offense vs LAC rush defense
TB rush offense LAC rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.01 LAC −0.06 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.01 LAC −0.06
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LAC 0.33 TB 0.12 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LAC 0.33 TB 0.12
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

LAC Los Angeles Chargers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ARI Lost 84%
2 vs LV Lost 79%
3 @ BUF Lost 26%
4 @ SEA Lost 26%
5 vs DEN Lost 39%
6 @ KC Lost 30%

TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CIN Lost 37%
2 vs CLE Lost 57%
3 vs MIN Lost 27%
4 vs GB Lost 37%
5 @ DAL Won 28%
6 vs PIT Lost 36%
Week 13

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.