∅ Empty Set Football
Week 10 · 2026 regular season

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Sun, Nov 15, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
HOU 53%
47% CLE

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 10

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: HOU offense vs CLE defense
+0.0614th
box score 7.8 · 7th
Edge
CLE
−0.596th
box score 6.6 allowed · 12th
Rush: HOU offense vs CLE defense
−0.5729th
box score 3.6 · 29th
Edge
CLE
+0.0820th
box score 4.4 allowed · 22nd
Pass: CLE offense vs HOU defense
−1.1230th
box score 6.7 · 20th
Edge
HOU
−0.557th
box score 7.3 allowed · 19th
Rush: CLE offense vs HOU defense
−0.9632nd
box score 3.6 · 26th
Edge
HOU
−0.782nd
box score 3.4 allowed · 3rd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 10.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

HOU pass offense vs CLE pass defense
HOU pass offense CLE pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.22 CLE −0.33 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.22 CLE −0.33
CLE pass offense vs HOU pass defense
CLE pass offense HOU pass defense (allowed)
−1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −1.08 HOU −0.55 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −1.08 HOU −0.55
HOU rush offense vs CLE rush defense
HOU rush offense CLE rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.75 CLE +0.25 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU −0.75 CLE +0.25
CLE rush offense vs HOU rush defense
CLE rush offense HOU rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −0.98 HOU −0.91 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −0.98 HOU −0.91
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU 0.55 CLE 0.30 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 HOU 0.55 CLE 0.30
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

HOU Houston Texans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BUF Lost 62%
2 vs CIN Lost 70%
3 @ IND Lost 66%
4 vs DAL Lost 65%
5 @ TEN Won 70%
6 @ JAX Won 27%

CLE Cleveland Browns

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ JAX Lost 18%
2 @ TB Won 43%
3 vs CAR Won 46%
4 vs PIT Won 41%
5 @ NYJ Lost 63%
6 vs BAL Won 38%
Week 10

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.