∅ Empty Set Football
Week 10 · 2026 regular season

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 15, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
MIA 43%
57% IND

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 10

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: MIA offense vs IND defense
−0.3720th
box score 6.5 · 22nd
Edge
MIA
+0.6126th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: MIA offense vs IND defense
+0.2910th
box score 4.9 · 5th
Edge
MIA
0.0018th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th
Pass: IND offense vs MIA defense
−0.7827th
box score 5.9 · 27th
Even
+0.8229th
box score 7.8 allowed · 27th
Rush: IND offense vs MIA defense
+0.448th
box score 4.0 · 17th
Edge
IND
0.0019th
box score 3.7 allowed · 7th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 10.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

MIA pass offense vs IND pass defense
MIA pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA −0.37 IND +0.73 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA −0.37 IND +0.73
IND pass offense vs MIA pass defense
IND pass offense MIA pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 MIA +0.82 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 MIA +0.82
MIA rush offense vs IND rush defense
MIA rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA +0.29 IND +0.05 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA +0.29 IND +0.05
IND rush offense vs MIA rush defense
IND rush offense MIA rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 MIA 0.00 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 MIA 0.00
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA 0.12 IND 0.29 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA 0.12 IND 0.29
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

MIA Miami Dolphins

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LV Lost 72%
2 @ SF Lost 23%
3 vs KC Lost 46%
4 @ MIN Lost 22%
5 vs CIN Lost 46%

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%
Week 10

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.