∅ Empty Set Football
Week 12 · 2026 regular season

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Thu, Nov 26, 5:20 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
KC 34%
66% BUF

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 12

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: KC offense vs BUF defense
+0.2311th
box score 8.3 · 4th
Even
−0.2912th
box score 7.4 allowed · 21st
Rush: KC offense vs BUF defense
+0.713rd
box score 5.5 · 1st
Edge
KC
+0.1722nd
box score 3.8 allowed · 10th
Pass: BUF offense vs KC defense
+1.402nd
box score 8.8 · 1st
Edge
BUF
−0.458th
box score 6.1 allowed · 4th
Rush: BUF offense vs KC defense
+0.635th
box score 5.1 · 2nd
Even
−0.763rd
box score 3.5 allowed · 5th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 12.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

KC pass offense vs BUF pass defense
KC pass offense BUF pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.04 BUF −0.42 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.04 BUF −0.42
BUF pass offense vs KC pass defense
BUF pass offense KC pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +1.51 KC −0.35 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +1.51 KC −0.35
KC rush offense vs BUF rush defense
KC rush offense BUF rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.49 BUF +0.16 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.49 BUF +0.16
BUF rush offense vs KC rush defense
BUF rush offense KC rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +0.77 KC −0.71 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +0.77 KC −0.71
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC 0.72 BUF 0.97 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC 0.72 BUF 0.97
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

KC Kansas City Chiefs

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DEN Won 34%
2 vs IND Won 66%
3 @ MIA Won 54%
4 @ LV Won 61%
6 vs LAC Won 70%

BUF Buffalo Bills

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ HOU Won 38%
2 vs DET Won 69%
3 vs LAC Won 74%
4 vs NE Lost 70%
5 @ LA Won 49%
6 @ LV Won 74%
Week 12

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.