∅ Empty Set Football
Week 12 · 2026 regular season

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Thu, Nov 26, 1:30 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
PHI 53%
47% DAL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 12

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: PHI offense vs DAL defense
−1.1431st
box score 5.7 · 29th
Even
+1.4632nd
box score 8.3 allowed · 30th
Rush: PHI offense vs DAL defense
−0.2923rd
box score 3.7 · 25th
Edge
PHI
+0.6130th
box score 5.1 allowed · 31st
Pass: DAL offense vs PHI defense
+0.3710th
box score 7.2 · 16th
Edge
PHI
−0.764th
box score 7.0 allowed · 16th
Rush: DAL offense vs PHI defense
+0.1112th
box score 3.8 · 20th
Edge
PHI
−0.299th
box score 4.0 allowed · 14th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 12.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

PHI pass offense vs DAL pass defense
PHI pass offense DAL pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.93 DAL +1.46 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.93 DAL +1.46
DAL pass offense vs PHI pass defense
DAL pass offense PHI pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 PHI −0.82 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 PHI −0.82
PHI rush offense vs DAL rush defense
PHI rush offense DAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.21 DAL +0.61 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.21 DAL +0.61
DAL rush offense vs PHI rush defense
DAL rush offense PHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 PHI −0.35 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 PHI −0.35
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI 0.63 DAL 0.36 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI 0.63 DAL 0.36
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

PHI Philadelphia Eagles

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs WAS Won 82%
2 @ TEN Won 80%
3 @ CHI Lost 53%
4 vs LA Lost 65%
5 @ JAX Lost 34%
6 vs CAR Lost 64%

DAL Dallas Cowboys

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ NYG Lost 65%
2 vs WAS Won 66%
3 vs BAL Lost 50%
4 @ HOU Won 35%
5 vs TB Lost 72%
6 @ GB Lost 32%
Week 12

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.