∅ Empty Set Football
Week 17 · 2026 regular season

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Jan 3, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NYG 41%
59% DAL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 17

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NYG offense vs DAL defense
−0.5721st
box score 6.8 · 19th
Edge
NYG
+1.4632nd
box score 8.3 allowed · 30th
Rush: NYG offense vs DAL defense
−0.5128th
box score 3.8 · 23rd
Even
+0.6130th
box score 5.1 allowed · 31st
Pass: DAL offense vs NYG defense
+0.3710th
box score 7.2 · 16th
Edge
DAL
−0.0717th
box score 6.2 allowed · 5th
Rush: DAL offense vs NYG defense
+0.1112th
box score 3.8 · 20th
Edge
DAL
+0.7532nd
box score 5.0 allowed · 30th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 17.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NYG pass offense vs DAL pass defense
NYG pass offense DAL pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYG −0.91 DAL +1.46 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYG −0.91 DAL +1.46
DAL pass offense vs NYG pass defense
DAL pass offense NYG pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 NYG +0.11 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 NYG +0.11
NYG rush offense vs DAL rush defense
NYG rush offense DAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYG −0.45 DAL +0.61 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYG −0.45 DAL +0.61
DAL rush offense vs NYG rush defense
DAL rush offense NYG rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 NYG +0.70 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 NYG +0.70
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYG 0.24 DAL 0.36 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYG 0.24 DAL 0.36
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NYG New York Giants

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DAL Won 35%
2 @ LA Lost 24%
3 vs TEN Won 59%
4 vs ARI Won 60%
5 @ WAS Tie 51%
6 vs NO Lost 56%

DAL Dallas Cowboys

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ NYG Lost 65%
2 vs WAS Won 66%
3 vs BAL Lost 50%
4 @ HOU Won 35%
5 vs TB Lost 72%
6 @ GB Lost 32%
Week 17

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.