∅ Empty Set Football
Week 17 · 2026 regular season

Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Jan 3, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
WAS 20%
80% JAX

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 17

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: WAS offense vs JAX defense
−0.2719th
box score 6.1 · 26th
Even
+0.1921st
box score 8.0 allowed · 29th
Rush: WAS offense vs JAX defense
−0.0313th
box score 4.7 · 7th
Edge
JAX
−0.584th
box score 3.2 allowed · 1st
Pass: JAX offense vs WAS defense
+1.045th
box score 8.0 · 5th
Edge
JAX
+0.3322nd
box score 7.1 allowed · 17th
Rush: JAX offense vs WAS defense
−0.0816th
box score 4.1 · 16th
Edge
JAX
+0.2525th
box score 3.9 allowed · 12th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 17.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

WAS pass offense vs JAX pass defense
WAS pass offense JAX pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.27 JAX −0.09 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.27 JAX −0.09
JAX pass offense vs WAS pass defense
JAX pass offense WAS pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 JAX +0.99 WAS +0.33 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 JAX +0.99 WAS +0.33
WAS rush offense vs JAX rush defense
WAS rush offense JAX rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.03 JAX −0.80 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.03 JAX −0.80
JAX rush offense vs WAS rush defense
JAX rush offense WAS rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 JAX −0.18 WAS +0.25 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 JAX −0.18 WAS +0.25
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS 0.12 JAX 1.00 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS 0.12 JAX 1.00
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

WAS Washington Commanders

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PHI Lost 18%
2 @ DAL Lost 34%
3 vs SEA Won 19%
4 vs IND Lost 51%
5 vs NYG Tie 49%

JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CLE Won 82%
2 @ DEN Lost 44%
3 vs NE Won 58%
4 @ CIN Won 57%
5 vs PHI Won 66%
6 vs HOU Lost 73%
Week 17

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.