∅ Empty Set Football
Week 17 · 2026 regular season

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Sun, Jan 3, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DEN 45%
55% NE

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 17

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DEN offense vs NE defense
−0.8428th
box score 5.6 · 32nd
Edge
NE
−0.2114th
box score 7.1 allowed · 18th
Rush: DEN offense vs NE defense
−0.1420th
box score 3.4 · 30th
Edge
NE
−0.1212th
box score 3.9 allowed · 13th
Pass: NE offense vs DEN defense
+1.313rd
box score 8.0 · 6th
Even
−1.092nd
box score 6.4 allowed · 10th
Rush: NE offense vs DEN defense
−0.1319th
box score 4.2 · 15th
Edge
DEN
−0.0914th
box score 4.7 allowed · 25th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 17.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DEN pass offense vs NE pass defense
DEN pass offense NE pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.75 NE −0.44 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.75 NE −0.44
NE pass offense vs DEN pass defense
NE pass offense DEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE +1.36 DEN −0.83 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE +1.36 DEN −0.83
DEN rush offense vs NE rush defense
DEN rush offense NE rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.07 NE −0.13 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.07 NE −0.13
NE rush offense vs DEN rush defense
NE rush offense DEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE −0.11 DEN −0.05 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE −0.11 DEN −0.05
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN 0.93 NE 0.85 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN 0.93 NE 0.85
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DEN Denver Broncos

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ KC Lost 66%
2 vs JAX Won 56%
3 vs LA Won 65%
4 @ SF Lost 40%
5 @ LAC Won 61%
6 vs SEA Won 60%

NE New England Patriots

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ SEA Lost 33%
2 vs PIT Won 60%
3 @ JAX Lost 42%
4 @ BUF Won 30%
5 vs LV Won 78%
6 vs NYJ Won 81%
Week 17

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.