∅ Empty Set Football
Week 15 · 2026 regular season

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Sun, Dec 20, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
ATL 54%
46% WAS

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 15

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: ATL offense vs WAS defense
−0.0317th
box score 7.6 · 11th
Edge
ATL
+0.3322nd
box score 7.1 allowed · 17th
Rush: ATL offense vs WAS defense
+0.722nd
box score 5.1 · 3rd
Edge
ATL
+0.2525th
box score 3.9 allowed · 12th
Pass: WAS offense vs ATL defense
−0.2719th
box score 6.1 · 26th
Edge
ATL
−0.2713th
box score 6.6 allowed · 11th
Rush: WAS offense vs ATL defense
−0.0313th
box score 4.7 · 7th
Edge
WAS
−0.0716th
box score 3.6 allowed · 6th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 15.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

ATL pass offense vs WAS pass defense
ATL pass offense WAS pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.13 WAS +0.33 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.13 WAS +0.33
WAS pass offense vs ATL pass defense
WAS pass offense ATL pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.27 ATL −0.44 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.27 ATL −0.44
ATL rush offense vs WAS rush defense
ATL rush offense WAS rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.73 WAS +0.25 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.73 WAS +0.25
WAS rush offense vs ATL rush defense
WAS rush offense ATL rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.03 ATL +0.14 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.03 ATL +0.14
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL 0.42 WAS 0.12 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL 0.42 WAS 0.12
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

ATL Atlanta Falcons

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PIT Lost 38%
2 vs CAR Lost 58%
3 @ GB Won 33%
4 @ NO Won 47%
5 vs BAL Lost 48%
6 vs CHI Lost 46%

WAS Washington Commanders

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PHI Lost 18%
2 @ DAL Lost 34%
3 vs SEA Won 19%
4 vs IND Lost 51%
5 vs NYG Tie 49%
Week 15

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.