∅ Empty Set Football
Week 15 · 2026 regular season

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Sun, Dec 20, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
MIA 23%
77% GB

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 15

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: MIA offense vs GB defense
−0.3720th
box score 6.5 · 22nd
Edge
GB
−0.3510th
box score 6.4 allowed · 9th
Rush: MIA offense vs GB defense
+0.2910th
box score 4.9 · 5th
Even
−0.2210th
box score 4.1 allowed · 18th
Pass: GB offense vs MIA defense
+0.806th
box score 7.6 · 10th
Edge
GB
+0.8229th
box score 7.8 allowed · 27th
Rush: GB offense vs MIA defense
−0.2222nd
box score 3.1 · 31st
Edge
MIA
0.0019th
box score 3.7 allowed · 7th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 15.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

MIA pass offense vs GB pass defense
MIA pass offense GB pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA −0.37 GB −0.35 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA −0.37 GB −0.35
GB pass offense vs MIA pass defense
GB pass offense MIA pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB +0.80 MIA +0.82 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB +0.80 MIA +0.82
MIA rush offense vs GB rush defense
MIA rush offense GB rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA +0.29 GB −0.22 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA +0.29 GB −0.22
GB rush offense vs MIA rush defense
GB rush offense MIA rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB −0.22 MIA 0.00 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB −0.22 MIA 0.00
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA 0.12 GB 0.67 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA 0.12 GB 0.67
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

MIA Miami Dolphins

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LV Lost 72%
2 @ SF Lost 23%
3 vs KC Lost 46%
4 @ MIN Lost 22%
5 vs CIN Lost 46%

GB Green Bay Packers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ MIN Lost 40%
2 @ NYJ Won 62%
3 vs ATL Lost 67%
4 @ TB Won 63%
5 vs CHI Won 48%
6 vs DAL Won 68%
Week 15

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.