∅ Empty Set Football
Week 15 · 2026 regular season

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Sun, Dec 20, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
IND 56%
44% TEN

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 15

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: IND offense vs TEN defense
−0.7827th
box score 5.9 · 27th
Edge
IND
+1.0231st
box score 7.5 allowed · 22nd
Rush: IND offense vs TEN defense
+0.448th
box score 4.0 · 17th
Edge
IND
−0.0715th
box score 3.8 allowed · 11th
Pass: TEN offense vs IND defense
−1.2732nd
box score 5.6 · 31st
Edge
IND
+0.6126th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: TEN offense vs IND defense
−0.1921st
box score 3.8 · 21st
Edge
IND
0.0018th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 15.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

IND pass offense vs TEN pass defense
IND pass offense TEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 TEN +1.15 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 TEN +1.15
TEN pass offense vs IND pass defense
TEN pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −1.16 IND +0.73 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −1.16 IND +0.73
IND rush offense vs TEN rush defense
IND rush offense TEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 TEN −0.13 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 TEN −0.13
TEN rush offense vs IND rush defense
TEN rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.14 IND +0.05 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.14 IND +0.05
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND 0.29 TEN −0.21 −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND 0.29 TEN −0.21
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%

TEN Tennessee Titans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NYJ Lost 54%
2 vs PHI Lost 20%
3 @ NYG Lost 41%
4 @ BAL Lost 18%
5 vs HOU Lost 30%
6 @ IND Won 28%
Week 15

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.