∅ Empty Set Football
Week 15 · 2026 regular season

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Dec 20, 1:05 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NYJ 46%
54% ARI

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 15

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NYJ offense vs ARI defense
−0.7426th
box score 7.5 · 12th
Even
+0.7328th
box score 8.6 allowed · 32nd
Rush: NYJ offense vs ARI defense
−0.4026th
box score 3.6 · 28th
Even
+0.4627th
box score 4.4 allowed · 23rd
Pass: ARI offense vs NYJ defense
−0.6725th
box score 5.7 · 30th
Edge
NYJ
−0.1915th
box score 6.3 allowed · 8th
Rush: ARI offense vs NYJ defense
−0.3124th
box score 3.7 · 24th
Edge
NYJ
−0.0517th
box score 4.2 allowed · 19th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 15.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NYJ pass offense vs ARI pass defense
NYJ pass offense ARI pass defense (allowed)
−2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −1.02 ARI +1.00 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −1.02 ARI +1.00
ARI pass offense vs NYJ pass defense
ARI pass offense NYJ pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.73 NYJ −0.08 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.73 NYJ −0.08
NYJ rush offense vs ARI rush defense
NYJ rush offense ARI rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −0.41 ARI +0.54 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −0.41 ARI +0.54
ARI rush offense vs NYJ rush defense
ARI rush offense NYJ rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.28 NYJ −0.02 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.28 NYJ −0.02
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ 0.09 ARI −0.11 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ 0.09 ARI −0.11
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NYJ New York Jets

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ TEN Won 46%
2 vs GB Lost 38%
3 @ DET Lost 27%
4 @ CHI Lost 19%
5 vs CLE Won 37%
6 @ NE Lost 19%

ARI Arizona Cardinals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LAC Won 16%
2 vs SEA Lost 19%
3 @ SF Lost 14%
4 @ NYG Lost 40%
5 vs DET Lost 34%
6 @ LA Won 21%
Week 15

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.