∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 8, 6:30 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CIN 50%
50% ATL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CIN offense vs ATL defense
+0.0115th
box score 7.2 · 15th
Even
−0.2713th
box score 6.6 allowed · 11th
Rush: CIN offense vs ATL defense
−0.0817th
box score 3.6 · 27th
Even
−0.0716th
box score 3.6 allowed · 6th
Pass: ATL offense vs CIN defense
−0.0317th
box score 7.6 · 11th
Edge
ATL
+0.5525th
box score 7.3 allowed · 20th
Rush: ATL offense vs CIN defense
+0.722nd
box score 5.1 · 3rd
Edge
ATL
+0.6531st
box score 5.0 allowed · 29th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CIN pass offense vs ATL pass defense
CIN pass offense ATL pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN +0.01 ATL −0.44 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN +0.01 ATL −0.44
ATL pass offense vs CIN pass defense
ATL pass offense CIN pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.13 CIN +0.55 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.13 CIN +0.55
CIN rush offense vs ATL rush defense
CIN rush offense ATL rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN −0.08 ATL +0.14 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN −0.08 ATL +0.14
ATL rush offense vs CIN rush defense
ATL rush offense CIN rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.73 CIN +0.65 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.73 CIN +0.65
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN 0.51 ATL 0.42 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN 0.51 ATL 0.42
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs TB Won 63%
2 @ HOU Won 30%
3 @ PIT Lost 44%
4 vs JAX Lost 43%
5 @ MIA Won 54%

ATL Atlanta Falcons

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PIT Lost 38%
2 vs CAR Lost 58%
3 @ GB Won 33%
4 @ NO Won 47%
5 vs BAL Lost 48%
6 vs CHI Lost 46%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.