∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Mon, Nov 9, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
BUF 42%
58% MIN

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: BUF offense vs MIN defense
+1.402nd
box score 8.8 · 1st
Even
−1.023rd
box score 6.3 allowed · 6th
Rush: BUF offense vs MIN defense
+0.635th
box score 5.1 · 2nd
Even
−0.485th
box score 4.0 allowed · 15th
Pass: MIN offense vs BUF defense
−0.5922nd
box score 6.7 · 21st
Edge
BUF
−0.2912th
box score 7.4 allowed · 21st
Rush: MIN offense vs BUF defense
−0.4227th
box score 3.8 · 19th
Edge
BUF
+0.1722nd
box score 3.8 allowed · 10th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

BUF pass offense vs MIN pass defense
BUF pass offense MIN pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +1.51 MIN −1.02 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +1.51 MIN −1.02
MIN pass offense vs BUF pass defense
MIN pass offense BUF pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.59 BUF −0.42 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.59 BUF −0.42
BUF rush offense vs MIN rush defense
BUF rush offense MIN rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +0.77 MIN −0.48 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF +0.77 MIN −0.48
MIN rush offense vs BUF rush defense
MIN rush offense BUF rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.42 BUF +0.16 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.42 BUF +0.16
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF 0.97 MIN 0.98 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BUF 0.97 MIN 0.98
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

BUF Buffalo Bills

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ HOU Won 38%
2 vs DET Won 69%
3 vs LAC Won 74%
4 vs NE Lost 70%
5 @ LA Won 49%
6 @ LV Won 74%

MIN Minnesota Vikings

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs GB Won 60%
2 @ CHI Won 43%
3 @ TB Won 73%
4 vs MIA Won 78%
5 @ NO Won 69%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.