∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
LA 59%
41% WAS

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LA offense vs WAS defense
+0.717th
box score 7.2 · 17th
Edge
LA
+0.3322nd
box score 7.1 allowed · 17th
Rush: LA offense vs WAS defense
+0.644th
box score 4.6 · 10th
Edge
LA
+0.2525th
box score 3.9 allowed · 12th
Pass: WAS offense vs LA defense
−0.2719th
box score 6.1 · 26th
Edge
LA
−0.695th
box score 5.8 allowed · 2nd
Rush: WAS offense vs LA defense
−0.0313th
box score 4.7 · 7th
Even
−0.1911th
box score 4.4 allowed · 21st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

LA pass offense vs WAS pass defense
LA pass offense WAS pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.92 WAS +0.33 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.92 WAS +0.33
WAS pass offense vs LA pass defense
WAS pass offense LA pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.27 LA −0.78 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.27 LA −0.78
LA rush offense vs WAS rush defense
LA rush offense WAS rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.71 WAS +0.25 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.71 WAS +0.25
WAS rush offense vs LA rush defense
WAS rush offense LA rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.03 LA −0.20 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 WAS −0.03 LA −0.20
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA 0.64 WAS 0.12 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA 0.64 WAS 0.12
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

LA Los Angeles Rams

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs SF Lost 54%
2 vs NYG Won 76%
3 @ DEN Lost 35%
4 @ PHI Won 35%
5 vs BUF Lost 51%
6 vs ARI Lost 79%

WAS Washington Commanders

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PHI Lost 18%
2 @ DAL Lost 34%
3 vs SEA Won 19%
4 vs IND Lost 51%
5 vs NYG Tie 49%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.