∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NYJ 21%
79% KC

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NYJ offense vs KC defense
−0.7426th
box score 7.5 · 12th
Edge
KC
−0.458th
box score 6.1 allowed · 4th
Rush: NYJ offense vs KC defense
−0.4026th
box score 3.6 · 28th
Edge
KC
−0.763rd
box score 3.5 allowed · 5th
Pass: KC offense vs NYJ defense
+0.2311th
box score 8.3 · 4th
Edge
KC
−0.1915th
box score 6.3 allowed · 8th
Rush: KC offense vs NYJ defense
+0.713rd
box score 5.5 · 1st
Edge
KC
−0.0517th
box score 4.2 allowed · 19th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NYJ pass offense vs KC pass defense
NYJ pass offense KC pass defense (allowed)
−1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −1.02 KC −0.35 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −1.02 KC −0.35
KC pass offense vs NYJ pass defense
KC pass offense NYJ pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.04 NYJ −0.08 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.04 NYJ −0.08
NYJ rush offense vs KC rush defense
NYJ rush offense KC rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −0.41 KC −0.71 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −0.41 KC −0.71
KC rush offense vs NYJ rush defense
KC rush offense NYJ rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.49 NYJ −0.02 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 KC +0.49 NYJ −0.02
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ 0.09 KC 0.72 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ 0.09 KC 0.72
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NYJ New York Jets

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ TEN Won 46%
2 vs GB Lost 38%
3 @ DET Lost 27%
4 @ CHI Lost 19%
5 vs CLE Won 37%
6 @ NE Lost 19%

KC Kansas City Chiefs

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DEN Won 34%
2 vs IND Won 66%
3 @ MIA Won 54%
4 @ LV Won 61%
6 vs LAC Won 70%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.