∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Sun, Nov 8, 5:20 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
TB 22%
78% CHI

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: TB offense vs CHI defense
−1.0029th
box score 5.8 · 28th
Even
+0.9330th
box score 8.4 allowed · 31st
Rush: TB offense vs CHI defense
−0.0918th
box score 4.8 · 6th
Edge
TB
+0.4226th
box score 4.5 allowed · 24th
Pass: CHI offense vs TB defense
+0.1212th
box score 7.1 · 18th
Edge
CHI
+0.0819th
box score 6.6 allowed · 14th
Rush: CHI offense vs TB defense
+0.506th
box score 4.5 · 11th
Edge
CHI
−0.1013th
box score 3.4 allowed · 2nd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

TB pass offense vs CHI pass defense
TB pass offense CHI pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.64 CHI +1.10 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.64 CHI +1.10
CHI pass offense vs TB pass defense
CHI pass offense TB pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI −0.09 TB +0.22 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI −0.09 TB +0.22
TB rush offense vs CHI rush defense
TB rush offense CHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.01 CHI +0.44 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.01 CHI +0.44
CHI rush offense vs TB rush defense
CHI rush offense TB rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI +0.65 TB −0.01 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI +0.65 TB −0.01
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB 0.12 CHI 0.69 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB 0.12 CHI 0.69
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CIN Lost 37%
2 vs CLE Lost 57%
3 vs MIN Lost 27%
4 vs GB Lost 37%
5 @ DAL Won 28%
6 vs PIT Lost 36%

CHI Chicago Bears

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CAR Won 56%
2 vs MIN Lost 57%
3 vs PHI Won 47%
4 vs NYJ Won 81%
5 @ GB Lost 52%
6 @ ATL Won 54%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.