∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CIN 37%
63% BAL
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
CIN (41%, +3, +130)
(59%, −3, −160) BAL

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CIN offense vs BAL defense
+0.0115th
box score 7.2 · 15th
Edge
CIN
+0.0820th
box score 6.9 allowed · 15th
Rush: CIN offense vs BAL defense
−0.0817th
box score 3.6 · 27th
Edge
BAL
−0.328th
box score 3.8 allowed · 9th
Pass: BAL offense vs CIN defense
+0.698th
box score 8.3 · 3rd
Edge
BAL
+0.5525th
box score 7.3 allowed · 20th
Rush: BAL offense vs CIN defense
+1.041st
box score 4.9 · 4th
Edge
BAL
+0.6531st
box score 5.0 allowed · 29th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CIN pass offense vs BAL pass defense
CIN pass offense BAL pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN +0.01 BAL +0.12 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN +0.01 BAL +0.12
BAL pass offense vs CIN pass defense
BAL pass offense CIN pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BAL +0.98 CIN +0.55 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BAL +0.98 CIN +0.55
CIN rush offense vs BAL rush defense
CIN rush offense BAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN −0.08 BAL −0.32 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN −0.08 BAL −0.32
BAL rush offense vs CIN rush defense
BAL rush offense CIN rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BAL +1.19 CIN +0.65 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 BAL +1.19 CIN +0.65
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN 0.51 BAL 0.80 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CIN 0.51 BAL 0.80
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs TB Won 63%
2 @ HOU Won 30%
3 @ PIT Lost 44%
4 vs JAX Lost 43%
5 @ MIA Won 54%

BAL Baltimore Ravens

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ IND Won 59%
2 vs NO Lost 71%
3 @ DAL Won 50%
4 vs TEN Won 82%
5 @ ATL Won 52%
6 @ CLE Lost 62%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.