∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Sun, Oct 25, 6:30 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
PIT 58%
42% NO
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
PIT (55%, −2.5, −136)
(45%, +2.5, +112) NO

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: PIT offense vs NO defense
−0.6123rd
box score 6.3 · 23rd
Edge
PIT
+0.6427th
box score 7.7 allowed · 26th
Rush: PIT offense vs NO defense
+0.379th
box score 4.6 · 9th
Edge
PIT
+0.2424th
box score 4.8 allowed · 27th
Pass: NO offense vs PIT defense
−0.6424th
box score 6.1 · 25th
Edge
PIT
−0.1516th
box score 6.6 allowed · 13th
Rush: NO offense vs PIT defense
−0.8630th
box score 3.8 · 22nd
Edge
PIT
−0.436th
box score 4.0 allowed · 17th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

PIT pass offense vs NO pass defense
PIT pass offense NO pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT −0.48 NO +0.30 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT −0.48 NO +0.30
NO pass offense vs PIT pass defense
NO pass offense PIT pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NO −0.48 PIT +0.17 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NO −0.48 PIT +0.17
PIT rush offense vs NO rush defense
PIT rush offense NO rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT +0.43 NO +0.29 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT +0.43 NO +0.29
NO rush offense vs PIT rush defense
NO rush offense PIT rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NO −0.88 PIT −0.35 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NO −0.88 PIT −0.35
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT 0.64 NO 0.21 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PIT 0.64 NO 0.21
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

PIT Pittsburgh Steelers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ATL Won 62%
2 @ NE Lost 40%
3 vs CIN Won 56%
4 @ CLE Lost 59%
5 vs IND Won 63%
6 @ TB Won 64%

NO New Orleans Saints

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ DET Lost 39%
2 @ BAL Won 29%
3 vs LV Lost 68%
4 vs ATL Lost 53%
5 vs MIN Lost 31%
6 @ NYG Won 44%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.