∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 25, 1:25 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
LA 61%
39% LV
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
LA (70%, −6, −260)
(30%, +6, +215) LV

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LA offense vs LV defense
+0.717th
box score 7.2 · 17th
Edge
LA
+0.3924th
box score 7.9 allowed · 28th
Rush: LA offense vs LV defense
+0.644th
box score 4.6 · 10th
Edge
LA
+0.5129th
box score 4.9 allowed · 28th
Pass: LV offense vs LA defense
+0.1013th
box score 7.4 · 14th
Edge
LA
−0.695th
box score 5.8 allowed · 2nd
Rush: LV offense vs LA defense
−0.8831st
box score 3.0 · 32nd
Edge
LA
−0.1911th
box score 4.4 allowed · 21st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

LA pass offense vs LV pass defense
LA pass offense LV pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.92 LV +0.48 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.92 LV +0.48
LV pass offense vs LA pass defense
LV pass offense LA pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LV −0.03 LA −0.78 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LV −0.03 LA −0.78
LA rush offense vs LV rush defense
LA rush offense LV rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.71 LV +0.65 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA +0.71 LV +0.65
LV rush offense vs LA rush defense
LV rush offense LA rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LV −0.89 LA −0.20 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LV −0.89 LA −0.20
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA 0.64 LV 0.11 −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 LA 0.64 LV 0.11
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

LA Los Angeles Rams

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs SF Lost 54%
2 vs NYG Won 76%
3 @ DEN Lost 35%
4 @ PHI Won 35%
5 vs BUF Lost 51%
6 vs ARI Lost 79%

LV Las Vegas Raiders

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs MIA Won 28%
2 @ LAC Won 21%
3 @ NO Won 32%
4 vs KC Lost 39%
5 @ NE Lost 22%
6 vs BUF Lost 26%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.