∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Mon, Oct 26, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DAL 35%
65% PHI
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
DAL (69%, −6, −250)
(31%, +6, +200) PHI

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DAL offense vs PHI defense
+0.3710th
box score 7.2 · 16th
Edge
PHI
−0.764th
box score 7.0 allowed · 16th
Rush: DAL offense vs PHI defense
+0.1112th
box score 3.8 · 20th
Edge
PHI
−0.299th
box score 4.0 allowed · 14th
Pass: PHI offense vs DAL defense
−1.1431st
box score 5.7 · 29th
Even
+1.4632nd
box score 8.3 allowed · 30th
Rush: PHI offense vs DAL defense
−0.2923rd
box score 3.7 · 25th
Edge
PHI
+0.6130th
box score 5.1 allowed · 31st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DAL pass offense vs PHI pass defense
DAL pass offense PHI pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 PHI −0.82 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.37 PHI −0.82
PHI pass offense vs DAL pass defense
PHI pass offense DAL pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.93 DAL +1.46 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.93 DAL +1.46
DAL rush offense vs PHI rush defense
DAL rush offense PHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 PHI −0.35 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL +0.11 PHI −0.35
PHI rush offense vs DAL rush defense
PHI rush offense DAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.21 DAL +0.61 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 PHI −0.21 DAL +0.61
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL 0.36 PHI 0.63 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DAL 0.36 PHI 0.63
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DAL Dallas Cowboys

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ NYG Lost 65%
2 vs WAS Won 66%
3 vs BAL Lost 50%
4 @ HOU Won 35%
5 vs TB Lost 72%
6 @ GB Lost 32%

PHI Philadelphia Eagles

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs WAS Won 82%
2 @ TEN Won 80%
3 @ CHI Lost 53%
4 vs LA Lost 65%
5 @ JAX Lost 34%
6 vs CAR Lost 64%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.