∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
IND 18%
82% MIN
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
IND (30%, +6, +220)
(70%, −6, −275) MIN

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: IND offense vs MIN defense
−0.7827th
box score 5.9 · 27th
Edge
MIN
−1.023rd
box score 6.3 allowed · 6th
Rush: IND offense vs MIN defense
+0.448th
box score 4.0 · 17th
Edge
MIN
−0.485th
box score 4.0 allowed · 15th
Pass: MIN offense vs IND defense
−0.5922nd
box score 6.7 · 21st
Edge
MIN
+0.6126th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: MIN offense vs IND defense
−0.4227th
box score 3.8 · 19th
Edge
IND
0.0018th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

IND pass offense vs MIN pass defense
IND pass offense MIN pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 MIN −1.02 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND −0.61 MIN −1.02
MIN pass offense vs IND pass defense
MIN pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.59 IND +0.73 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.59 IND +0.73
IND rush offense vs MIN rush defense
IND rush offense MIN rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 MIN −0.48 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND +0.36 MIN −0.48
MIN rush offense vs IND rush defense
MIN rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.42 IND +0.05 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIN −0.42 IND +0.05
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND 0.29 MIN 0.98 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 IND 0.29 MIN 0.98
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%

MIN Minnesota Vikings

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs GB Won 60%
2 @ CHI Won 43%
3 @ TB Won 73%
4 vs MIA Won 78%
5 @ NO Won 69%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.