∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 25, 1:05 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DEN 77%
23% ARI
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
DEN (66%, −4.5, −218)
(34%, +4.5, +180) ARI

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DEN offense vs ARI defense
−0.8428th
box score 5.6 · 32nd
Even
+0.7328th
box score 8.6 allowed · 32nd
Rush: DEN offense vs ARI defense
−0.1420th
box score 3.4 · 30th
Edge
DEN
+0.4627th
box score 4.4 allowed · 23rd
Pass: ARI offense vs DEN defense
−0.6725th
box score 5.7 · 30th
Edge
DEN
−1.092nd
box score 6.4 allowed · 10th
Rush: ARI offense vs DEN defense
−0.3124th
box score 3.7 · 24th
Edge
DEN
−0.0914th
box score 4.7 allowed · 25th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DEN pass offense vs ARI pass defense
DEN pass offense ARI pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.75 ARI +1.00 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.75 ARI +1.00
ARI pass offense vs DEN pass defense
ARI pass offense DEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.73 DEN −0.83 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.73 DEN −0.83
DEN rush offense vs ARI rush defense
DEN rush offense ARI rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.07 ARI +0.54 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN −0.07 ARI +0.54
ARI rush offense vs DEN rush defense
ARI rush offense DEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.28 DEN −0.05 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ARI −0.28 DEN −0.05
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN 0.93 ARI −0.11 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DEN 0.93 ARI −0.11
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DEN Denver Broncos

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ KC Lost 66%
2 vs JAX Won 56%
3 vs LA Won 65%
4 @ SF Lost 40%
5 @ LAC Won 61%
6 vs SEA Won 60%

ARI Arizona Cardinals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LAC Won 16%
2 vs SEA Lost 19%
3 @ SF Lost 14%
4 @ NYG Lost 40%
5 vs DET Lost 34%
6 @ LA Won 21%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.