∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
TB 29%
71% CAR
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
TB (39%, +3, +145)
(61%, −3, −175) CAR

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: TB offense vs CAR defense
−1.0029th
box score 5.8 · 28th
Edge
CAR
−0.3111th
box score 6.3 allowed · 7th
Rush: TB offense vs CAR defense
−0.0918th
box score 4.8 · 6th
Edge
TB
+0.5128th
box score 5.1 allowed · 32nd
Pass: CAR offense vs TB defense
−0.0116th
box score 7.7 · 9th
Edge
CAR
+0.0819th
box score 6.6 allowed · 14th
Rush: CAR offense vs TB defense
−0.0715th
box score 4.3 · 13th
Even
−0.1013th
box score 3.4 allowed · 2nd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

TB pass offense vs CAR pass defense
TB pass offense CAR pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.64 CAR −0.15 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.64 CAR −0.15
CAR pass offense vs TB pass defense
CAR pass offense TB pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CAR −0.11 TB +0.22 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CAR −0.11 TB +0.22
TB rush offense vs CAR rush defense
TB rush offense CAR rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.01 CAR +0.59 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB −0.01 CAR +0.59
CAR rush offense vs TB rush defense
CAR rush offense TB rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CAR −0.11 TB −0.01 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CAR −0.11 TB −0.01
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB 0.12 CAR 0.43 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TB 0.12 CAR 0.43
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CIN Lost 37%
2 vs CLE Lost 57%
3 vs MIN Lost 27%
4 vs GB Lost 37%
5 @ DAL Won 28%
6 vs PIT Lost 36%

CAR Carolina Panthers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CHI Lost 44%
2 @ ATL Won 42%
3 @ CLE Lost 54%
4 vs DET Won 45%
6 @ PHI Won 36%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.