∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 25, 1:25 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
GB 50%
50% DET
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
GB (38%, +3.5, +152)
(62%, −3.5, −180) DET

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: GB offense vs DET defense
+0.806th
box score 7.6 · 10th
Edge
GB
+0.3423rd
box score 7.5 allowed · 23rd
Rush: GB offense vs DET defense
−0.2222nd
box score 3.1 · 31st
Even
+0.2123rd
box score 4.2 allowed · 20th
Pass: DET offense vs GB defense
+1.134th
box score 7.8 · 8th
Edge
DET
−0.3510th
box score 6.4 allowed · 9th
Rush: DET offense vs GB defense
+0.447th
box score 4.4 · 12th
Edge
DET
−0.2210th
box score 4.1 allowed · 18th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

GB pass offense vs DET pass defense
GB pass offense DET pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB +0.80 DET +0.34 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB +0.80 DET +0.34
DET pass offense vs GB pass defense
DET pass offense GB pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DET +1.13 GB −0.35 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DET +1.13 GB −0.35
GB rush offense vs DET rush defense
GB rush offense DET rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB −0.22 DET +0.21 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB −0.22 DET +0.21
DET rush offense vs GB rush defense
DET rush offense GB rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DET +0.44 GB −0.22 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 DET +0.44 GB −0.22
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB 0.67 DET 0.56 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 GB 0.67 DET 0.56
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

GB Green Bay Packers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ MIN Lost 40%
2 @ NYJ Won 62%
3 vs ATL Lost 67%
4 @ TB Won 63%
5 vs CHI Won 48%
6 vs DAL Won 68%

DET Detroit Lions

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NO Won 61%
2 @ BUF Lost 31%
3 vs NYJ Won 73%
4 @ CAR Lost 55%
5 @ ARI Won 66%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.