∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CLE 64%
36% TEN
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
CLE (53%, −1.5, −130)
(47%, +1.5, +105) TEN

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CLE offense vs TEN defense
−1.1230th
box score 6.7 · 20th
Even
+1.0231st
box score 7.5 allowed · 22nd
Rush: CLE offense vs TEN defense
−0.9632nd
box score 3.6 · 26th
Edge
TEN
−0.0715th
box score 3.8 allowed · 11th
Pass: TEN offense vs CLE defense
−1.2732nd
box score 5.6 · 31st
Edge
CLE
−0.596th
box score 6.6 allowed · 12th
Rush: TEN offense vs CLE defense
−0.1921st
box score 3.8 · 21st
Even
+0.0820th
box score 4.4 allowed · 22nd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CLE pass offense vs TEN pass defense
CLE pass offense TEN pass defense (allowed)
−2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −1.08 TEN +1.15 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −1.08 TEN +1.15
TEN pass offense vs CLE pass defense
TEN pass offense CLE pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −1.16 CLE −0.33 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −1.16 CLE −0.33
CLE rush offense vs TEN rush defense
CLE rush offense TEN rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −0.98 TEN −0.13 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE −0.98 TEN −0.13
TEN rush offense vs CLE rush defense
TEN rush offense CLE rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.14 CLE +0.25 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 TEN −0.14 CLE +0.25
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE 0.30 TEN −0.21 −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CLE 0.30 TEN −0.21
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CLE Cleveland Browns

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ JAX Lost 18%
2 @ TB Won 43%
3 vs CAR Won 46%
4 vs PIT Won 41%
5 @ NYJ Lost 63%
6 vs BAL Won 38%

TEN Tennessee Titans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NYJ Lost 54%
2 vs PHI Lost 20%
3 @ NYG Lost 41%
4 @ BAL Lost 18%
5 vs HOU Lost 30%
6 @ IND Won 28%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.