∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Thu, Oct 22, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NE 47%
53% CHI
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
NE (43%, +3, +123)
(57%, −3, −150) CHI

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NE offense vs CHI defense
+1.313rd
box score 8.0 · 6th
Edge
NE
+0.9330th
box score 8.4 allowed · 31st
Rush: NE offense vs CHI defense
−0.1319th
box score 4.2 · 15th
Edge
NE
+0.4226th
box score 4.5 allowed · 24th
Pass: CHI offense vs NE defense
+0.1212th
box score 7.1 · 18th
Even
−0.2114th
box score 7.1 allowed · 18th
Rush: CHI offense vs NE defense
+0.506th
box score 4.5 · 11th
Edge
CHI
−0.1212th
box score 3.9 allowed · 13th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NE pass offense vs CHI pass defense
NE pass offense CHI pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE +1.36 CHI +1.10 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE +1.36 CHI +1.10
CHI pass offense vs NE pass defense
CHI pass offense NE pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI −0.09 NE −0.44 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI −0.09 NE −0.44
NE rush offense vs CHI rush defense
NE rush offense CHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE −0.11 CHI +0.44 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE −0.11 CHI +0.44
CHI rush offense vs NE rush defense
CHI rush offense NE rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI +0.65 NE −0.13 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 CHI +0.65 NE −0.13
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE 0.85 CHI 0.69 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NE 0.85 CHI 0.69
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NE New England Patriots

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ SEA Lost 33%
2 vs PIT Won 60%
3 @ JAX Lost 42%
4 @ BUF Won 30%
5 vs LV Won 78%
6 vs NYJ Won 81%

CHI Chicago Bears

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CAR Won 56%
2 vs MIN Lost 57%
3 vs PHI Won 47%
4 vs NYJ Won 81%
5 @ GB Lost 52%
6 @ ATL Won 54%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.