∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
SF 71%
29% ATL
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
SF (67%, −4.5, −235)
(33%, +4.5, +190) ATL

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 4 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: SF offense vs ATL defense
+1.401st
box score 8.4 · 2nd
Edge
SF
−0.2713th
box score 6.6 allowed · 11th
Rush: SF offense vs ATL defense
+0.2011th
box score 4.6 · 8th
Edge
SF
−0.0716th
box score 3.6 allowed · 6th
Pass: ATL offense vs SF defense
−0.0317th
box score 7.6 · 11th
Edge
SF
−0.459th
box score 6.1 allowed · 3rd
Rush: ATL offense vs SF defense
+0.722nd
box score 5.1 · 3rd
Edge
ATL
−0.367th
box score 3.7 allowed · 8th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

SF pass offense vs ATL pass defense
SF pass offense ATL pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SF +1.40 ATL −0.44 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SF +1.40 ATL −0.44
ATL pass offense vs SF pass defense
ATL pass offense SF pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.13 SF −0.45 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.13 SF −0.45
SF rush offense vs ATL rush defense
SF rush offense ATL rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SF +0.20 ATL +0.14 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SF +0.20 ATL +0.14
ATL rush offense vs SF rush defense
ATL rush offense SF rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.73 SF −0.36 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 ATL +0.73 SF −0.36
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SF 1.14 ATL 0.42 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 SF 1.14 ATL 0.42
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

SF San Francisco 49ers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LA Won 46%
2 vs MIA Won 77%
3 vs ARI Won 86%
4 vs DEN Won 60%
5 @ SEA Won 44%

ATL Atlanta Falcons

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PIT Lost 38%
2 vs CAR Lost 58%
3 @ GB Won 33%
4 @ NO Won 47%
5 vs BAL Lost 48%
6 vs CHI Lost 46%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.