∅ Empty Set Football
Week 7 · 2026 regular season

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
MIA 49%
51% NYJ
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
MIA (33%, +5.5, +188)
(67%, −5.5, −225) NYJ

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 5 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Oct 18, 4:47 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 7

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: MIA offense vs NYJ defense
−0.3720th
box score 6.5 · 22nd
Edge
NYJ
−0.1915th
box score 6.3 allowed · 8th
Rush: MIA offense vs NYJ defense
+0.2910th
box score 4.9 · 5th
Edge
MIA
−0.0517th
box score 4.2 allowed · 19th
Pass: NYJ offense vs MIA defense
−0.7426th
box score 7.5 · 12th
Edge
NYJ
+0.8229th
box score 7.8 allowed · 27th
Rush: NYJ offense vs MIA defense
−0.4026th
box score 3.6 · 28th
Edge
MIA
0.0019th
box score 3.7 allowed · 7th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 7.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

MIA pass offense vs NYJ pass defense
MIA pass offense NYJ pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA −0.37 NYJ −0.08 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA −0.37 NYJ −0.08
NYJ pass offense vs MIA pass defense
NYJ pass offense MIA pass defense (allowed)
−2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −1.02 MIA +0.82 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −1.02 MIA +0.82
MIA rush offense vs NYJ rush defense
MIA rush offense NYJ rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA +0.29 NYJ −0.02 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA +0.29 NYJ −0.02
NYJ rush offense vs MIA rush defense
NYJ rush offense MIA rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −0.41 MIA 0.00 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 NYJ −0.41 MIA 0.00
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA 0.12 NYJ 0.09 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6 MIA 0.12 NYJ 0.09
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

MIA Miami Dolphins

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LV Lost 72%
2 @ SF Lost 23%
3 vs KC Lost 46%
4 @ MIN Lost 22%
5 vs CIN Lost 46%

NYJ New York Jets

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ TEN Won 46%
2 vs GB Lost 38%
3 @ DET Lost 27%
4 @ CHI Lost 19%
5 vs CLE Won 37%
6 @ NE Lost 19%
Week 7

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.